Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.630694 24.595846 26.711430 29.168176 31.955089 35.033045 38.709871
2026-01-25 19.419799 22.095858 25.173086 29.012180 33.728955 39.409690 46.886564
2026-02-01 17.240275 20.319435 24.047694 28.977917 35.457947 43.883375 56.021029
2026-02-08 15.579919 18.881004 23.046827 28.827208 36.875362 48.076345 65.630148
2026-02-15 14.277831 17.701177 22.171668 28.633014 38.093161 52.093520 75.850542
2026-02-22 13.224621 16.711847 21.399968 28.419718 39.167219 55.994740 86.806175
2026-03-01 12.398066 15.933554 20.810949 28.351858 40.385611 60.267734 99.531241
2026-03-08 11.693172 15.251792 20.274742 28.268042 41.519085 64.553761 113.555697
2026-03-15 11.347087 15.039868 20.384192 29.166021 44.367664 72.409355 137.732086
2026-03-22 10.744502 14.404664 19.797531 28.868159 45.081433 76.373224 154.727381
2026-03-29 10.268406 13.919591 19.394068 28.816479 46.209906 81.378356 176.516020
2026-04-05 9.915819 13.593125 19.205807 29.098377 47.987652 88.141742 206.621848
2026-04-12 9.466424 13.100354 18.731248 28.860481 48.780904 93.066719 234.789378
2026-04-19 9.070919 12.668199 18.324657 28.705695 49.730678 98.657314 269.385952
2026-04-26 8.731833 12.304073 18.002737 28.671447 50.929900 105.231426 313.341761
2026-05-03 8.400452 11.932434 17.640633 28.522753 51.858156 111.390202 361.841245
2026-05-10 8.088486 11.574353 17.276118 28.331337 52.661048 117.472253 417.212649
2026-05-17 7.797523 11.234751 16.920353 28.121147 53.388923 123.597414 481.395754
2026-05-24 7.550657 10.954748 16.650009 28.054268 54.450206 131.148241 566.873449
2026-05-31 7.318669 10.687592 16.384900 27.971677 55.462332 138.944351 670.227394
2026-06-07 7.242040 10.676674 16.577272 28.856352 59.094933 157.412688 914.108093
2026-06-14 7.005336 10.381508 16.232024 28.562919 59.572147 164.459082 1073.856851
2026-06-21 6.815814 10.158849 16.007773 28.512005 60.710911 174.708998 1320.092891